Monday, September 30, 2013

Justin's Week 4 Mock Draft

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14) - Teddy Bridgeater (QB/Louisville)

Blaine Gabbert's total QBR against the Colts was a 1.7, I didn't even know that was possible.  Regardless, the Jaguars gave him three years and now it is time to cut ties with him.

Bridgewater didn't even play last week and still managed to have a better game than Gabbert.  Bridgewater would be an immediate upgrade for this team and could finally make Justin Blackmon look like the All-Pro receiver the Jaguars envisioned when he was drafted.

2. Oakland Raiders (4-12) - Jadeveon Clowney (DE/South Carolina)

Oakland gave up 24 unanswered points to the Redskins after getting an early 14-0 lead.  Even worse, their pass defense has faded after the first two games.  The team has no reliable pass rusher outside of Lamarr Miller.

Clowney isn't having a great season, but he is injured.  Regardless, he is one of the best defensive prospects to enter the league in years and is they top player available.

3. Cleveland Browns (5-11) - Johnny Manziel (QB/Texas A&M)

Manziel looked solid again this week against Arkansas and has shown that during the season he will not serve as a distraction.  Some teams will still be scared of his offseason antic along with his small frame (6'1", 210 pounds) but I can't see Cleveland as being one of those teams.  Brian Hoyer has given them a spark, but so did Matt Moore in Jacksonville last year, and we all saw how that ended.

4. Buffalo Bills (5-11) - Anthony Barr (OLB/UCLA)

The best player available, Barr has flourished at lineback since converting from running back last season.  Barr would form a fearsome pass rush combo with Mario Williams.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11) - Tajh Boyd (QB/Clemson)

The end of the Josh Freeman era is beginning.  Freeman was not only listed as inactive against Arizona, he wasn't even on the sidelines.  Mike Glennon didn't look much better in his first career start.  Expect the Buccaneers to look for their franchise signal caller early next season.

6. New York Jets (5-11) - Sammy Watkins (WR/Clemson)

The team is all but officially Geno Smith's, but if they expect him to achieve any level of success, they need to bring in a playmaker to their offense.  Watkins set the tone against Wake Forest with a 64 yard touchdowns grab and ended the game with six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown.

7. Philadelphia Eagles (5-11) - Aaron Colvin (CB/Oklahoma)

The Eagles were simply picked apart by Peyton Manning as Denver put up the most points in franchise history.  Colvin could serve as an immediate upgrade to the Eagles defense.

8. St. Louis Rams (6-10) - Jake Matthews (OT/Texas A&M)

Roger Saffold will be a free agent at the end of the season and Jake Long was injured against San Francisco.  Long did return to the game, but there is already an injury history with him and if the Rams want to protect Sam Bradford, they need to bring in another tackle.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10) - Aaron Lynch (DE/South Florida)

Cincinnati has the league's best defensive tackle in Geno Atkins, but the rest of the defensive line could be solidified with the addition of another pass rusher.  Lynch could take over for Michael Johnson who is an impending free agent.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) - Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE/Washington)

Seferian-Jenkins has had a slow start this season, but he has scored in two straight games and has helped the team in more than just the pass department.  Tony Moeaki is too much of an injury concern to remain on the Chiefs roster and while Anthony Fasano has looked good so far this season, Seferian-Jenkins is still an upgrade.

11. St. Louis Rams (6-10) - Louis Nix (DT/Notre Dame)

Michael Brockers was a solid addition, but Nix could really bolster this defensive line.  The Rams need help stopping the run as well after huge performances from Frank Gore and DeMarco Murray in back-to-back weeks.

12. San Diego Chargers (7-9) - Mike Evans (WR/Texas A&M)

San Diego has needs all across their roster.  Phillip Rivers needs a big body at receiver like he had with Vinnie Jackson.  Evans has a similar frame and could provide a big spark for the Chargers passing game.

13. Dallas Cowboys (7-9) - Scott Crichton (DE/Oregon State)

Anthony Spencer, who is a free agent, was just lost for the season.  Dallas will want to find a replacement so teams don't zero in on DeMarcus Ware.

14. Carolina Panthers (8-8) - Marqise Lee (WR/USC)

Steve Smith isn't going to be around forever.  Cam Newton will need a new weapon on offense soon.  Lee looked great against Arizona State until he went down with a sprained knee.

15. Arizona Cardinals (8-8) - Taylor Lewan (OT/Michigan)

Arizona is on pace to allow 40 sacks this season.  The Cardinals are consistently one of the worst offensive lines in the league and the entire unit needs to be rebuilt.  Lewan could have been a top 10 pick if he declared for the draft last year.

16. Green Bay Packers (8-8) - C.J. Mosley (MLB/Alabama)

Green Bay needs help in the middle of their defense, especially with A.J. Hawk aging.  Mosley was just named SEC defensive player of the week after playing a big piece in shutting out Ole Miss.

17. Tennessee Titans (8-8) - Bradley Roby (CB/Ohio State)

Another week, another huge game from Alterraun Verner.  Verner, an impending free agent, is tied for the league lead with four interceptions and has shut down the opposing team's top receiver each week.  Someone will pay Verner this offseason, and if it isn't Tennesse, then they will need to find someone in the draft.

18. Baltimore Ravens (8-8) - Antonio Richardson (OT/Tennessee)

Bryant McKinnie is no spring chicken.  If Baltimore wants to protect their $120 million quarterback (who threw five picks this week) then they will need to bring in a new left tackle sooner rather than later.

19. Atlanta Falcons (9-7) - Khalil Mack (DE/Buffalo)

Atlanta put absolutely zero pressure on Tom Brady.  Aside from the game against Miami, the Falcons pass rush has been atrocious all season long and needs to be addressed this offseason.

20. Minnesota Vikings (9-7) - A.J. McCarron (QB/Alabama)

Matt Cassel played well against Pittsburgh, but he isn't going to be changing the Vikings fortunes at quarterback anytime soon.  Minnesota doesn't need a superstar at the position, but a competent game manager like McCarron could handle the weapons this team has on offense much better than Christian Ponder has.

21. Detroit Lions (9-7) - James Hurst (OT/North Carolina)

Detroit is quietly 3-1 this season and could sneak into the playoffs.  They are still struggling in pass protection, however.  Riley Reiff has shown that he can be a decent right tackle in the NFL, but not someone you want as the anchor of your offensive line.  Hurst can solidify the blind side while Reiff kicks over to the right.

22. Miami Dolphins (9-7) - Marcus Roberson (CB/Florida)

Miami's biggest need heading into the offseason will be their secondary.  Brent Grimes is injured and both he and Will Allen aren't long-term answers at the position.  Florida has the best combination of cornerbacks in the league, both Roberson and Loucheiz Purifoy are first-round talents.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) - Cyrus Kouandijo (OT/Alabama)

The Steelers offensive line is a mess.  Ben Roethlisberger is the most sacked quarterback in the league and was knocked down five times against the Vikings.  The Steelers have built the middle of their offensive line in recent drafts, but the outside still needs work.

24. New York Giants (9-7) - Loucheiz Purifoy (CB/Florida)

Yes, despite the 0-4 start by New York and Pittsburgh my preseason projections still have them in the playoffs (I don't make adjustments to my preseason predictions).  Regardless, the Giants secondary is awful, there is no adequate substitute for it.  Luckily three of their cornerbacks are slated for free agency so the Giants will have the opportunity to rebuild the secondary in the offseason.

25. San Francisco 49ers (9-7) - Kyle Van Noy (DE/BYU)

Once a strength on this team, the pass rush in San Francisco is in a bit of limbo.  Aldon Smith is in rehab and though he is still playing at a high level, Justin Smith is 34.  San Francisco has built their defense with a stout front seven and they will need to retool it during the offseason.

26. Cleveland Browns (5-11) - Jordan Matthews (WR/Vanderbilt)

Cleveland got their new franchise quarterback, now it is time to bring in a primary target for him.  Rumor has Cleveland shipping Greg Little and Josh Gordon during the season, so if both are gone receiver will become an obvious need.

27.  New Orleans Saints (11-5) - Anthony Johnson (DT/LSU)

New Orleans defense has improved this season, but there is still help needed all across the board.  Anthony Johnson is the best defensive player available and will serve as an immediate upgrade to their front seven.

28. New England Patriots (13-3) - Rashede Hageman (DE/Minnesota)

Hageman has the size to play both end or tackle, something Belichick covets in his defensive system.  With the season ending injury to Vince Wilfork along with the fact that Wilfork will turn 32 in November, Belichick may look for depth at the position.

29. Houston Texans (10-6) - Jason Verrett (CB/TCU)

Russell Wilson struggled against Houston's defense, but it had more to do with their pass rush than it did their secondary.  Houston will be looking to find a new cornerback in the offseason and potentially cut ties with Kareem Jackson.

30. Seattle Seahawks (11-5) - Adrian Hubbard (DE/Alabama)

Seattle added a few pieces to their defensive line during the offseason, but none are long-term solutions.  Hubbard has the versatility to play anywhere on the defnsive line aside form the nose position and can provide a solid pass rush option.

31. Chicago Bears (10-6) - Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (CB/Oregon)

Both of the Bears starting cornerbacks are in their contract year and could demand a big contract in free agency.  If they lose one cornerback, they will need to replace him.  Ekpre-Olomu had a huge game against Cal, tallying eight tackles and a pick.

32. Denver Broncos (13-3) - Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix (S/Alabama)

If Clinton-Dix is available here, I doubt Denver lets him fall into the second round.  Clinton-Dix is a hard-hitting safety that could be a big piece of Denver's secondary.

Monday, September 23, 2013

Justin's Week 3 Mock Draft

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14) - Teddy Bridgewater (QB/Louisville)

Jacksonville has just looked horrible in every game so far this season.  The only lead they have held all season was in the opening game against Kansas City when they forced a safety and all of their losses are by double digits.  Blaine Gabbert will most likely not return and head coach Gus Bradley will be looking for his guy in the draft.

Look no further than Bridgewater, who lit up and inferior Florida International squad for 77-percent completion rate and four touchdowns.  Bridgewater has an amazing 14-1 touchdown to interception ratio this season.

2. Buffalo Bills (4-12) - Jadeveon Clowney (DE/South Carolina)

Mario Williams is having a very good season so far, but Clowney is the top player on the board and is a force against both the pass and the run.  I can imagine Tom Brady won't be sleeping easy on nights before Bills games knowing he would have to face both Williams and Clowney.

3. Oakland Raiders (4-12) - Anthony Barr (OLB/UCLA)

For those who didn't see it, Anthony Barr absolutely destroyed New Mexico State quarterback King Davis on a clean hit this week (and of course was promptly flagged for targeting).  Barr has flourished as an outside linebacker since converting from running back last season.  Oakland's pass rush looked good during the first two weeks of the season, but disappeared against Denver.  Oakland needs a guy they can rely on to get to the quarterback.

4. Cleveland Browns (5-11) - Johnny Manziel (QB/Texas A&M)

Cleveland made headlines last week for their bonehead trade, but silence critics at least for now with a win over Minnesota.  Regardless of the win, Brian Hoyer is not the solution in Cleveland and the team will be looking for their next franchise quarterback, who will be their 21st starting quarterback since returning to the NFL in 1999.  There has only been one season since 1991 that one Browns quarterback has started every game in a season.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11) - Tajh Boyd (QB/Clemson)

Head coach Greg Schiano hates Josh Freeman, and he has a good reason to, Freeman is terrible.  Freeman is in his contract year and it is highly doubtful that he will return - or even finish the season.  With Freeman gone, Schiano can bring in his guy.

6. New York Jets (5-11) - Sammy Watkins (WR/Clemson)

New York drafted Geno Smith in the second round of last year's draft.  In 2014, the Jets will need to bring in weapons for him.  Watkins has taken over the top spot at wide receiver and is an absolute ball hawk of a receiver, something the Jets desperately need.

7. Philadelphia Eagles (5-11) - Aaron Colvin (CB/Oklahoma)

Philadelphia blew up their secondary during the offseason, but their current regime are just stop-gap solutions.  Colvin can emerge as a strong corner in Chip Kelly's defensive system.

8. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) - Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE/Washington)

Tony Moeaki is again on injured reserve and will likely be cut during the offseason.  Anthony Fasano was brought in, but Seferian-Jenkins would provide an immediate upgrade to the position.

9. St. Louis Rams (6-10) - Jake Matthews (OT/Texas A&M)

Jake Long was brought in during the offseason, but right tackle Roger Saffold is in his contract year.  Matthews can play both the left and right side, something that is valuable due to Long's injury history.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10) - Aaron Lynch (DE/South Florida)

Geno Atkins was extended, but Michael Johnson will be a free agent at the end of the season.  If he isn't retained, the team will need to find a replacement.

11. St. Louis Rams (6-10) - Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix (S/Alabama)

The Rams cornerbacks are great, but the team needs an upgrade at strong safety.  Clinton-Dix is a heavy hitter but can also cover the slot receiver.

12. San Diego Chargers (7-9) - Scott Crichton (DE/Oregon State)

San Diego brought in Melvin Ingram in 2012, but they could still add more to the pass rush, Crichton went sackless last week, but was commanding double teams throughout the game.

13. Dallas Cowboys (7-9) - Louis Nix (DT/Notre Dame)

Jay Ratliff is on injured reserve again and the 32-year-old is a cut candidate in the offseason.  If he is released, Dallas will need to bring in a new defensive tackle to command the middle.

14. Carolina Panthers (8-8) - Marqise Lee (WR/USC)

Steve Smith is the only reliable target in Carolina at wide receiver with the rest of the group being inconsistent.  If the Panthers want Cam Newton to continue to progress, they will need to bring in a second receiver to take pressure off of Smith and ultimately replace him.

15. Detroit Lions (8-8) - Taylor Lewan (OT/Michigan)

Detroit is in offensive line trouble again.  Riley Reiff has done well at the right side, but the Lions need to protect the blind side of Matthew Stafford, who has a history of injuries.

16. Arizona Cardinals (8-8) - Antonio Richardson (OT/Tennessee)

Arizona drafted Johnathan Cooper last April, but he was placed on injured reserve during the preseason and they are again in trouble along their offensive line.  Richardson could provide some stability to the left side of the Cardinals offensive line.

17. Green Bay Packers (8-8) - C.J. Mosley (MLB/Alabama)

A.J. Hawk is aging quickly and Desmond Bishop was released during the preseason.  Green Bay will need to find help in the middle of their defense during the offseason.

18. Tennessee Titans (8-8) - Bradley Roby (CB/Ohio State)

Alterraun Verner is a free agent at the end of the season and with the way he has played for far during the season, he could wind up with a big contract.  If Tennessee doesn't want to pony out the money, they may look for the draft for a replacement.

19. Minnesota Vikings (8-8) - A.J. McCarron (QB/Alabama)

Christian Ponder is awful.  Minnesota has the talent to compete, but they are being held back due to the lackluster play by their quarterback.  McCarron has a winning pedigree and leadership skills that the Vikings will covet.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) - Marcus Roberson (CB/Florida)

Pittsburgh's entire secondary (as well as their entire defense) is aging.  Last night, the looked like the shell of their former hard-hitting squad.  Roberson has been rising up the draft boards and could sneak into the top 15.

21. Miami Dolphins (10-6) - Loucheiz Purifoy (CB/Florida)

Miami has played very well so far this season, but their secondary is a liability.  Vontae Davis was never fully replaced and the team will need to find someone who can cover opposing receivers during the offseason.

22. Baltimore Ravens (9-7) - James Hurst (OT/North Carolina)

Bryant McKinnie is in the twilight of his career and Michael Oher can't be trusted to man the left side of the offensive line.  Baltimore invested $120 million into Joe Flacco and will need to protect him properly.

23. New Orleans Saints (10-6) - Khalil Mack (DE/Buffalo)

New Orleans defense looks much improved, but they still need to develop a pass rush if they expect to be serious contenders.  Mack was unblockable against Ohio State at the beginning of the season.

24. New York Giants (10-6) -Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (CB/Oregon)

New York has three cornerbacks entering free agency, which is sort of a blessing in disguise since they can't cover.  Ekpre-Olomu could be a steal at this spot.

25. Atlanta Falcons (9-7) - Anthony Johnson (DT/LSU)

Peria Jerry is a liability along the defensive line.  Atlanta will likely not continue with him aft er the season and look for a replacement.

26. San Francisco 49ers (9-7) - Jason Verrett (CB/TCU)

Carlos Rogers is an upcoming free agent and at age 32, he is an expendable commodity.  If he walks, the 49ers will need to find a new starting cornerback.

27. Cleveland Browns (5-11) - Mike Evans (WR/Texas A&M)

Cleveland will need a new receiver for their new quarterback.  Why not take his current teammate who gas been on fire all season?

28. New England Patriots (12-4) - Kyle Van Noy (DE/BYU)

New England needs a wide receiver, but something tells me this is a more prototypical pick for Bill Belichick.  Van Noy can line up at both end and outside linebacker.

29. Houston Texans (10-6) - Quandre Diggs (CB/Texas)

Houston's secondary has been an issue all season.  Kareem Jackson may become a cap casualty in the offseason, which will cause the Texans to look for a new cornerback.

30. Seattle Seahawks (11-5) - Ra'Shede Hageman (DE/Minnesota)

Seattle has some stop-gap players at defensive end, but they need a long term solution.  Hageman is a big body who can play either end of tackle.

31. Chicago Bears (11-5) - Darqueze Dennard (CB/Michigan State)

Both Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings are free agents after the season.  If Chicago loses one of them, they will need to replace him.

32. Denver Broncos (12-4) - A.J. Johnson (MLB/Tennessee)

Denver has few holes on their team, but the inside linebacker position could be upgraded.  Johnson is a hard hitter who can stuff the run.